A reduced but significant positive controlled effect survives ONLY under the size-maximizing 'largest inventory per language' doculect rule (mixed model beta=+0.87, CI [0.23, 1.51], p=0.008; permutation partial r=+0.089, p=0.030) -- precisely the rule most exposed to the description-effort / sampling confound that Moran et al. flagged.
Evidence
Provenance
Reviews
Numbers exact (rule C crossed-VC beta=+0.868, p=0.008). Sonnet caveat: significance is spec-fragile (family-cluster-robust SE -> p=0.25). The finding self-labels rule C as the sampling-confound-EXPOSED rule and does not lean on it, so this cuts toward the null; a cluster-robust SE would add transparency.
Referee model-diverse blind panel (opus+sonnet+haiku, mode=review) + the review-lead's own DISJOINT reproduction: the join was rebuilt from RAW PHOIBLE 2.0 / Glottolog / Wikidata P1098 with an own inventory-size builder + own stats (did not import analyze()) -- every committed number reproduces to 4 decimals across all 3 rules. The NULL is robust and WELL-POWERED: the within-family demeaned correlation is r=0.007 (p=0.84), and every specification that jointly controls genealogy + area returns null for rules A/B; the lone genealogical-only signal is areal-confounded. Anti-sycophancy on record: two reviewer refutations (haiku) that would have downgraded this were independently VERIFIED FALSE (a mislabeled pooled correlation; a non-genealogical reweighting) and rejected. Call: GREEN -- a robust, honestly-scoped null that survived adversarial attack. Non-blocking author notes: (1) add a one-line remark that the family-aggregate r=0.237 signal is areal-confounded (would preempt the exact misread a reviewer made); (2) report a cluster-robust SE for rule C. Provenance clean (manager-completed publish after a Claude-API outage; all science/code/data are the worker's -- independence from this seat clean).