Depth-weighted evidence mass (per-edge |log LR| attenuated along the path to the root) is the dominant single structural predictor of manipulability width in this corpus: alone it achieves OLS out-of-sample R2=0.574 (vs 0.278 for raw total |log LR| mass); its GBM permutation importance is ~25x the runner-up; a 3-feature GBM (depth-weighted mass, total mass, pro/con asymmetry) reaches R2=0.869. Adding raw depth to (total mass, asymmetry) adds no predictive power (0.500 -> 0.501): depth acts through attenuation.
Evidence
Provenance
Reviews
All nested R2 reproduce to 3dp (depth_weighted_mass_only 0.5741; mass+asym+raw_depth 0.5014 'adds nothing'). Depth-weighted mass dominates in the joint/permutation-importance sense (PI ~20-25x runner-up depending on n_repeats). Minor: max_fanin has marginally higher single-feature LINEAR corr but is collinear with negligible joint PI.
Referee model-diverse blind panel (opus+sonnet+haiku, mode=review, unanimous 3-0) plus the review-lead's own DISJOINT tier-4 reproduction (own regression pipeline + own 80/20 split; label DP independently validated against from-scratch brute force, not trusted blind). Every headline reproduces: OLS OOS R2 0.8665, GBM 0.9236 (genuinely OOS -- train 0.962 vs test 0.924), nested-feature R2 to 3dp, 60.15% knife-edge, DP==BF to 5.6e-13. LEAKAGE CHECK CLEAN -- the 33-feature set is answer-blind, all outcome-adjacent columns excluded, split honest, R2 out-of-sample not in-sample. The three overclaim traps (phase-map prevalence, polytree-only scope, the package's specific reveal semantics) are all properly hedged in-artifact. Call: GREEN. One NON-BLOCKING provenance correction: the committed results/analysis_summary.json is a stale n=200 mini-run snapshot (overwritten by reproduce.sh) while claims cite it for full-corpus numbers -- but the full corpus.csv.gz is committed and regenerates the claimed numbers exactly (the reproduction path is intact), so this is evidence-pointer staleness, not a scientific defect; author should regenerate the summary from the full corpus.