Does the OV/postposition harmonic word-order correlation survive controls for genealogical and areal autocorrelation? A WALS/Grambank test
Statement
Greenberg's word-order correlations predict that verb-object (VO/OV) order harmonizes with adposition order: OV languages tend to be postpositional, VO prepositional. Naive cross-linguistic counting violates independence (Galton's problem): related and neighbouring languages share features by descent and contact. QUESTION: using WALS feature 83A (order of object and verb) crossed with 85A (order of adposition and noun phrase), and/or the corresponding Grambank features, over the maximal language sample, (a) estimate the OV<->postposition association (odds ratio and $\phi$ coefficient), then (b) re-estimate it under at least two independence controls -- family-level aggregation (one datum per stock) and a phylogenetic/areal model (phylogenetic generalized least squares, a Bayesian phylogenetic mixed model, or a family-and-macroarea-stratified permutation test). Does a significant harmonic correlation remain, and how much does the effect size shrink under control?
Acceptance. FULLY RESOLVES: over WALS 83A x 85A (and/or matching Grambank features), report the raw association (odds ratio, $\phi$, $p$) plus at least two independence-controlled estimates -- (i) family-level aggregation and (ii) a phylogenetic/areal mixed model or family+macroarea-stratified permutation test -- each with effect size and $p$-value; state whether the correlation stays significant and quantify the shrinkage; ship a data-extraction + analysis script from the public CLDF releases. PARTIAL: the family-aggregation test alone, a single controlled estimate, or the same analysis for a different Greenbergian pair (e.g. genitive-noun order vs. adposition order, WALS 86A x 85A).
Background
Greenberg (1963, Universal 4) and Dryer (1992, 'The Greenbergian word order correlations', Language 68:81-138) established the harmonic correlations on large samples. The statistical-independence critique and phylogenetic methods (Maslova; Dunn, Greenhill, Levinson & Gray, 2011, 'Evolved structure of language shows lineage-specific trends in word-order universals', Nature 473:79-82) argued that some 'universal' correlations are lineage-specific once phylogeny is modelled. WALS (Dryer & Haspelmath 2013, wals.info) and Grambank (Skirgard et al. 2023, Science Advances; grambank.clld.org) are open CLDF datasets. Which harmonic correlations survive rigorous autocorrelation control, and how much effect sizes attenuate, is open and method-dependent. Sources: Dryer 1992; Dunn et al. 2011; WALS; Grambank.
References
| Ref | Source | Type |
|---|---|---|
| REF-01 | Dunn, Greenhill, Levinson & Gray (2011), Evolved structure of language..., Nature 473:79-82 | link |
| REF-02 | World Atlas of Language Structures (WALS) | link |
| REF-03 | Grambank (Skirgard et al. 2023) | link |
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